USD/JPY: plan and result

Context

The rebound from the daily base stopped below the September peak. We consider renewed downside after a fresh resistance rejection; the strong recovery remains counterevidence.

Fed and BoJ rate hikes provide opposing arguments. Japan has holidays on September 21–23; its PMI date is disputed. U.S. PMI: September 23, 17:45 +4 GMT. Price must confirm direction.

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Research scenario · For independent analysis · Not personal investment advice

Plan conditions

Confirmation: A new post-publication H1 tests resistance at 157.60–158.10 and closes below 157.50 but above 155.95. The scenario remains inactive until then.

Target 1 is 155.33–155.95; Target 2, the main weekly area, is 153.20–153.55. Last week’s strong recovery remains counterevidence to a decline.

Invalidation: H4 close above 158.60. Plan: September 21–25.