Plan

01 · Context

Decision context

On higher timeframes, recovery stopped below the 4 650–4 700 area. The plan considered continued downside.

After the H4 breaks of 4 600 and 4 500, former support became a possible barrier to upside.

The bounce from 4 400–4 420 was treated as a correction below 4 490. The scenario allowed a return to 4 475–4 490 before a decline.

This context belongs to the archived plan. Its macro commentary is outside the price-path review.

02 · Original version

Original chart and levels

XAU/USD H1 plan: confirmation below 4 440; levels 4 420, 4 400, 4 375; invalidation above 4 510.Expand chart
Plan · 31 Aug 2026.

Research scenario · For independent analysis · Not personal investment advice

ConfirmationH1 close below 4 440
Downside levels4 420 · 4 400 · 4 375
Possible return4 475–4 490
InvalidationH1 close above 4 510

03 · Conditions

Continued downside

Condition

An hourly candle close below 4 440.

A possible return to 4 475–4 490, followed by a decline to 4 420, 4 400 and 4 375.

4 4204 4004 375

An H1 close above 4 510 invalidates the scenario.

Reference levels after invalidation

Return to upside

Condition

An H1 close above 4 510 is a reason to reconsider the downside scenario.

Recovery reference levels: 4 465–4 475, 4 490–4 505 and 4 525. The original plan contains no separate buying rules.

4 465–4 4754 490–4 5054 525

The original does not specify an invalidation condition for the alternative.

Result

04 · Review of 7 Sep

Three downside levels were passed. The market then recovered.

After passing the lower levels, price returned to 4 500 and declined again: direction matched the plan, but the week's path was more complex than the diagram.

XAU/USD: movement through lower levels, recovery to 4 500 and another decline.Expand chart
The market one week later · 7 Sep 2026. A price-movement chart, not a trading statement.

Research scenario · For independent analysis · Not personal investment advice

Observed
  • The chart shows movement through 4 440, followed by 4 420, 4 400 and 4 375.
  • The initial downward move matched the scenario's direction.
What else matters
  • Price reached all three lower levels.
  • The return to 4 500 and another decline extend beyond the drawn path.
Limits of the conclusion
  • Hourly open, high, low and close prices are needed to verify hourly candle closes and the order in which conditions were met.
  • The image cannot establish the exact low or calculate trading results.
Consider the entire price path: reaching targets and the subsequent recovery are parts of the same outcome.